Winter Weather Woes: NOAA's Bold Predictions for a Bizarre 2025-2026 Season Could Rewrite the Rules of Snow and Sunshine Across America
Imagine a winter where the South stays sunny and mild, while the North shivers under extra snowfall—sound like the plot of a fantasy novel? Well, buckle up, because NOAA's latest forecast might just turn that into reality, challenging everything we think we know about the holiday season ahead.
By Emily Mae Czachor
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Emily Mae Czachor serves as a dedicated reporter and news editor at CBSNews.com, specializing in breaking stories, extreme weather events, and matters of social justice. Her previous work has graced publications such as the Los Angeles Times, BuzzFeed, and Newsweek.
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Updated on: October 16, 2025 / 2:27 PM EDT / CBS News
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its comprehensive winter outlook for 2025-2026 on Thursday, providing insights into expected seasonal shifts across various regions of the United States for the period spanning December, January, and February.
Developed by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, this updated forecast indicates that a significant portion of the contiguous U.S. will likely encounter warmer-than-average temperatures. However, the southern states are poised for a particularly dry and hot winter compared to typical norms. In contrast, northern regions can anticipate cooler conditions accompanied by increased wetness.
These anticipated weather trends align closely with the ongoing shift into La Niña, which represents the cooler phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. To help beginners grasp this concept, think of ENSO as a natural see-saw in the ocean and atmosphere: it swings between warm and cool phases based on deviations in sea surface temperatures and rainfall patterns over the equatorial Pacific Ocean from what's considered normal. La Niña, the 'cool' side of this cycle, often amps up these deviations, influencing global weather in predictable ways.
Just earlier this month, NOAA officials confirmed (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysismonitoring/ensoadvisory/ensodisc.shtml) that the U.S. has transitioned from the ENSO's 'neutral' state—where everything is pretty balanced—to La Niña, marked by below-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
Both La Niña and its counterpart, El Niño (the warm phase), exert a powerful grip on North American weather. During La Niña episodes, southern areas frequently face droughts, while the Pacific Northwest and parts of Canada get hit with heavy flooding rains. In winter specifically, this phase typically results in warmer, drier spells down South and cooler snaps up North, often paired with more precipitation that can mean extra snow or rain for those regions. For example, imagine a Texas winter feeling more like a mild fall, while Minnesota residents bundle up for frequent flurries—this is the kind of contrast La Niña can bring.
Experts at NOAA predict that La Niña will persist through February 2026, eventually fading into the neutral phase as spring approaches.
While NOAA's winter outlook doesn't delve into specific snowfall amounts—keeping things focused on broader trends—it does highlight above-average overall precipitation expected from December to February. This includes the Pacific Northwest, northern California along the West Coast, the northern Rockies, the Great Plains, and the western Great Lakes. These patterns fit right in with La Niña's typical footprint.
On the flip side, mirroring the phase's usual effects, the forecast calls for drier-than-normal conditions in the Southwest, southern Texas, and the Southeast—potentially leading to water shortages or drier landscapes in those areas.
Beyond the contiguous U.S., the outlook envisions warmer-than-usual winters for northwestern Alaska and cooler-than-normal ones for the state's panhandle. Precipitation projections show above-average levels for western Alaska and below-average for the panhandle region. A distinct forecast (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxhw40.html) is also available for the Hawaiian Islands.
But here's where it gets controversial: Are these climate cycles like La Niña purely natural, or is human-induced climate change amplifying their impacts, making winters more unpredictable than ever? Some scientists argue that rising global temperatures could exacerbate the extremes La Niña brings, turning what was once a predictable pattern into a wild card for farmers, skiers, and everyday folks planning holiday getaways. And this is the part most people miss—while NOAA's forecasts are based on solid data, they can't account for every variable, like unexpected shifts in weather systems. Could this lead to surprises that catch us off guard?
Nikki Nolan (https://www.cbsnews.com/team/nikki-nolan/) contributed to this report.
Do you agree that La Niña is reshaping our winters, or do you think climate change is the real culprit behind these forecasts? Share your thoughts in the comments below—let's discuss! Are you preparing differently for this winter based on NOAA's predictions, or do you see these outlooks as just educated guesses?
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